JPMorgan and Bitwise say Bitcoin will set new high

Bitcoin’s six-month volatility just fell from 60 % in January to 30 %—its lowest reading on record. JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou says that drop makes BTC look “too low” beside gold, whose risk-adjusted price signals a fair value near $126 K.

The bank’s model treats Bitcoin as “digital gold.” When it aligns volatility-adjusted prices of both assets, the current gap suggests roughly 14 % upside from today’s $111 K spot level. JPMorgan believes that catch-up could close before December if volatility stays near 30 %.

Corporate treasuries add weight. Strategy and Metaplanet hold more than 6% of all coins, removing liquid supply from exchanges. JPMorgan argues this “reserve asset” trend stabilizes price action and lures cautious institutions that once fled wild swings.

Macro tailwinds strengthen the thesis. U.S. real yields hover near zero, gold trades at $2,180 per ounce, and geopolitical risk keeps dollar hedges attractive. In that climate, JPMorgan says bitcoin’s portable scarcity gives it “room to re-rate” against traditional stores of value.

Still, the path isn’t a straight line. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that losing $117,570 support could trigger a fast trip to the high-90 K zone. JPMorgan concedes that regulatory jolts or ETF outflows could delay the $126 K mark, yet it calls those risks “temporary noise” in a structural uptrend.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan builds his 2035 target on a 28.3 % compound annual growth rate–roughly equal to bitcoin’s average post-halving performance. At that pace, one coin climbs from $111 K today to $1.3 M in ten years, giving Bitcoin a $25–30 T market cap, larger than U.S. Treasuries.

Why such steep growth? Hougan cites three drivers. First, institutional allocation could rise from ~3 % of global multi-asset portfolios to 5–10 % as risk models normalize around spot ETFs. That shift alone would inject up to $1 T in new demand. Second, emerging-market central banks now explore Bitcoin for reserves as they diversify away from the dollar. Third, generational wealth transfer could place trillions in the hands of digital-native investors who trust self-custody assets.

Bitwise also points to the shrinking issuance curve: after the 2028 Bitcoin halving, fewer than 1.6 M new coins will ever be mined. With ETF wrappers swallowing roughly 900 BTC a day, the manager expects a structural undersupply that amplifies every demand shock.  

Critics push back. Bernstein notes that ETF flows may plateau once early adopters fill allocations, capping upside. Gold-market veterans argue that bitcoin’s scarcity narrative ignores security-budget risks if block rewards fall too low. And JPMorgan itself warns that de-leveraging cycles can wipe out 50 % of spot value in months, regardless of long-run models.

Bitwise stresses that even a half-success scenario–say, a 20 % CAGR–still lands bitcoin near $600 K in 2035, outclassing expected equity and bond returns. The firm calls that asymmetric payoff “hard to ignore” for allocators chasing real yields in an aging, low-growth world.

Bitcoin’s short-term fair value and long-term moonshot sit far apart, yet both forecasts lean on the same forces: falling volatility, tight supply, and steady institutional inflows.

For web3 builders, those forces matter more than the headline numbers. ETF demand pushes transaction fees up, rewarding miners and Layer-2 rollups. Treasury hoards drain exchange liquidity, so protocols that ease OTC settlement gain relevance. And if central banks truly nibble on BTC, compliance bridges and proof-of-reserves tools will move from nice-to-have to mandatory.

Skepticism still belongs in every thesis. Price paths rarely follow neat curves, and macro shocks can stall even the strongest narratives. But the data–narrower spreads, record-low volatility, relentless ETF bids–shows bitcoin maturing into the asset class the early cypherpunks imagined. Whether it tops $126 K in months or $1.3 M in a decade, the playbook stays the same: watch supply, track flows, and build for a future where digital scarcity commands real-world capital.