Gold bars fly off the shelves as prices hold near records
Gold prices remain near record highs: by mid‑October, a troy ounce trades in the $4,200–$4,250 range. So far this year, the metal is up more than 60%, repeatedly setting all‑time highs.
Intraday volatility is elevated, yet the overall price level has stabilized above $4,000. The frenzy has moved beyond professional circles and reached retail buyers.
Posts on social media show queues at dealers and coin shops where physical gold is being bought at peak quotes. Retailers in the US, Europe and Australia report wider premiums over spot and shortages of popular sizes.
Such widespread demand for bars and coins hasn’t been seen since the Great Depression and indicates that gold is increasingly viewed as a last‑resort store of value.
The current backdrop reflects several factors:
- Geopolitical risks and trade wars are fuelling demand for safe‑haven assets.
- Central banks continue to add to gold reserves, diversifying international assets and reducing reliance on the US dollar. Gold now accounts for 20% of global reserves, above the euro (16%).
- Inflation expectations remain elevated, while the prospect of a turn in US monetary policy increases the relative appeal of a non‑yielding asset.
- Markets expect the Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle and potentially start cutting rates in the coming months.
Forecasts from major investment houses diverge, adding uncertainty. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026.
J.P. Morgan Research expects an average of $3,675 per ounce in Q4 2025 and a move back toward $4,000 by Q2 2026.
The risk scenario is closely linked to a potentially tighter Fed path: a stronger dollar and delayed rate cuts could push prices back to the $3,000–$3,200 zone.
For now, the combination of central‑bank demand and retail activity is keeping the price floor high and maintaining gold among core defensive holdings for long‑horizon investors.
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