📣 September Fed minutes hint at two more rate cuts by year's end
posted 9 Oct 2025
The US Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, released on October 8, show most officials expect more interest rate cuts this year.
Most participants in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) see further interest rate cuts this year as likely, while highlighting ongoing risks to employment. The September meeting followed the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, a quarter-point reduction. Released amid a U.S. government shutdown, the minutes note that delays in key economic reports are complicating the data picture for investors and policymakers ahead of the October 28–29 meeting.
The release indicated that near-term expectations for the policy rate dropped after weaker-than-expected employment data, upside risks to inflation, and a rise in downside employment risks. According to the report:
On September 17, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 50-basis-point cut. The Committee also said it would continue shrinking its securities holdings and assess further adjustments as new information emerges. Officials noted that financial conditions had loosened in recent weeks, with Treasury yields declining and equity markets showing resilience, but they warned that volatility could return if inflation data surprises to the upside.
Ahead of the minutes, markets were already pricing in potential 2025 easing, reflecting expectations for lower borrowing costs and possible support for stocks and crypto. The Fed has two remaining meetings this year - October 28–29 and December 9–10, when decisions on rate cuts will be announced.
Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting.
Policy remains “not on a preset course,” the Committee stressed, with future moves dependent on incoming data, the outlook, and the balance of risks. The minutes added that while inflation had eased from its 2022 peak, it still remained above the 2% target, leaving officials cautious about cutting rates too aggressively.
On September 17, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 50-basis-point cut. The Committee also said it would continue shrinking its securities holdings and assess further adjustments as new information emerges. Officials noted that financial conditions had loosened in recent weeks, with Treasury yields declining and equity markets showing resilience, but they warned that volatility could return if inflation data surprises to the upside.
Ahead of the minutes, markets were already pricing in potential 2025 easing, reflecting expectations for lower borrowing costs and possible support for stocks and crypto. The Fed has two remaining meetings this year - October 28–29 and December 9–10, when decisions on rate cuts will be announced.
