VanEck says Bitcoin may hit half of gold’s market cap
VanEck forecasts that Bitcoin may capture about half of gold's market capitalization, implying a price near $644,000 per coin, though the investment firm says that outcome could take several years.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital asset research, said on X that "at today's record gold price, that implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per Bitcoin." The forecast assumes Bitcoin would absorb about half of gold's $26 trillion store-of-value role.
Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at approximately $2.48 trillion. VanEck's projection rests on assumptions that younger investors in emerging markets increasingly favor Bitcoin over gold, and that institutional adoption will strengthen.
Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, said reaching half of gold's cap would require a roughly 5.6× increase in Bitcoin's value. He described a 5- to 10-year horizon as "more realistic" than an immediate price jump.
Sigel and VanEck maintain a nearer-term target of $180,000 for Bitcoin by year-end 2025. The firm argues that Bitcoin's position will be strengthened by macro trends, generational wealth transfer, and network effects.
Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at approximately $2.48 trillion. VanEck's projection rests on assumptions that younger investors in emerging markets increasingly favor Bitcoin over gold, and that institutional adoption will strengthen.
Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, said reaching half of gold's cap would require a roughly 5.6× increase in Bitcoin's value. He described a 5- to 10-year horizon as "more realistic" than an immediate price jump.
Sigel and VanEck maintain a nearer-term target of $180,000 for Bitcoin by year-end 2025. The firm argues that Bitcoin's position will be strengthened by macro trends, generational wealth transfer, and network effects.
Gold recently rose to record highs above $4,000 per ounce. Sigel noted that roughly half of gold's value comes from its store-of-value use, rather than industrial or jewelry demand. Bitcoin aims to capture that segment of gold's market.
The $644,000 price target would represent an increase of approximately 420% from Bitcoin's current price levels around $125,000. VanEck has not specified exact timelines for when Bitcoin might reach the projected valuation.
Whether Bitcoin will reach half of gold's market cap remains contingent on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory clarity, capital inflows, and evolving investor behavior. VanEck's model assumes continued adoption among both retail and institutional investors over multiple years.
The $644,000 price target would represent an increase of approximately 420% from Bitcoin's current price levels around $125,000. VanEck has not specified exact timelines for when Bitcoin might reach the projected valuation.
Whether Bitcoin will reach half of gold's market cap remains contingent on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory clarity, capital inflows, and evolving investor behavior. VanEck's model assumes continued adoption among both retail and institutional investors over multiple years.
Author
Sebile Fane cut her teeth in blockchain by building tiny NFT experiments with friends in her living room, long before the buzzwords took hold. She’s driven by a curiosity for the human stories behind smart contracts — whether it’s a small-town artist minting her first token or a DAO voting on climate grants — and weaves technical insight with genuine empathy.
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