✨ Bitcoin price now tied to global finance trends
posted 27 Aug 2025
Analysts say Bitcoin's price now responds more to global liquidity shifts and institutional adoption than traditional four-year halving cycles.
Bitcoin fell 0.33 percent during Monday's trading session. Analyst James Check identified three phases in Bitcoin's development from 2011 to present.The first phase ran from 2011 to 2018 and focused on retail adoption. The second phase lasted from 2018 to 2022 with high leverage trading. The current phase began in 2022 with institutional participation.
Bitcoin completed its most recent halving event in 2024. Halvings reduce the number of new Bitcoin created every four years by half.Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were followed by major price increases. The 2024 halving produced smaller price effects compared to earlier cycles.
Global liquidity is projected to peak in late 2025 according to market reports. About $33 trillion in government debt needs refinancing across developed countries in 2026.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received approval earlier in 2025. The ETFs brought new investment capital and connected Bitcoin more closely to traditional financial markets. Bitcoin now reacts to interest rate changes, central bank policies, and regulatory announcements. The cryptocurrency tracks traditional financial markets more closely than in previous years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in Europe and Asia could bring additional institutional investment. These products would further integrate Bitcoin into global financial systems.
Matthew Hougan of Bitwise said the halving cycle framework no longer applies to Bitcoin price movements. Other analysts maintain that institutional investment flows could extend the current market cycle. James Check described the current period as more stable than previous retail-driven or leverage-focused eras. Bitcoin mining rewards have less impact on price compared to macroeconomic factors.
Matthew Hougan of Bitwise said the halving cycle framework no longer applies to Bitcoin price movements. Other analysts maintain that institutional investment flows could extend the current market cycle. James Check described the current period as more stable than previous retail-driven or leverage-focused eras. Bitcoin mining rewards have less impact on price compared to macroeconomic factors.
