Analysts see room to $180K for BTC before overbought
Bitcoin’s current Mayer Multiple, MVRV ratio, and NVT metrics indicate the cryptocurrency is not yet in speculative overbought territory and may still have upside before major reversals set in.
The Mayer Multiple, which divides Bitcoin’s price by its 200-day moving average, is around 1.15, placing it well below the commonly cited overbought threshold of 2.4. At today’s levels, Bitcoin would need to rally toward $180,000 for the Mayer Multiple to approach levels historically associated with market tops.
Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio (market value divided by realized value) is currently in the low 2x range, a level considered healthy for bull markets and not yet extreme by historical standards. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures deviation from the norm, also has not reached peaks that typically precede corrections.
Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio (market value divided by realized value) is currently in the low 2x range, a level considered healthy for bull markets and not yet extreme by historical standards. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures deviation from the norm, also has not reached peaks that typically precede corrections.
The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to daily on-chain transaction volume, remains moderate. Rising transaction volume has helped restrain NVT expansion even as price pushes higher, suggesting network usage is absorbing some of the valuation pressure.
Taken together, these metrics point to a market that is extended relative to longer-term averages but not yet signaling speculative excess. Analysts observing these readings believe Bitcoin still has room to move higher before prudence is warranted.
That said, shorter-term price action is less certain. Bitcoin has hovered near resistance zones without a firm breakout, and some traders view the current consolidation phase as a potential precursor to a 10% correction toward support levels near $114,000.
While these on-chain indicators are useful tools for gauging market structure, they are not predictive guarantees. Real-world factors, including macroeconomic shifts, regulation, institutional flows, can alter trajectories quickly. Still, as of October 10, 2025, Bitcoin’s on-chain profile suggests the rally may not yet have exhausted itself.
Taken together, these metrics point to a market that is extended relative to longer-term averages but not yet signaling speculative excess. Analysts observing these readings believe Bitcoin still has room to move higher before prudence is warranted.
That said, shorter-term price action is less certain. Bitcoin has hovered near resistance zones without a firm breakout, and some traders view the current consolidation phase as a potential precursor to a 10% correction toward support levels near $114,000.
While these on-chain indicators are useful tools for gauging market structure, they are not predictive guarantees. Real-world factors, including macroeconomic shifts, regulation, institutional flows, can alter trajectories quickly. Still, as of October 10, 2025, Bitcoin’s on-chain profile suggests the rally may not yet have exhausted itself.
Author
Sebile Fane cut her teeth in blockchain by building tiny NFT experiments with friends in her living room, long before the buzzwords took hold. She’s driven by a curiosity for the human stories behind smart contracts — whether it’s a small-town artist minting her first token or a DAO voting on climate grants — and weaves technical insight with genuine empathy.
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