Prediction markets becoming information hubs: Bernstein
Prediction platforms are shifting from niche betting to broader information markets, according to a Thursday note from Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Equity research and brokerage firm Bernstein says prediction markets are expanding beyond politics to cover sports, business, economics, and culture. Factors driving the growth include regulatory clarity and integrations with brokers and crypto platforms, according to the company.
Robinhood’s link to Kalshi featured prominently. The brokerage handled $2.5 billion of Kalshi trading volume in October, generating an estimated $25 million in revenue for the month. If sustained, this would imply an annualized pace of nearly $300 million.
Bernstein described the competition between prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket as a real battle. Kalshi has taken a regulation-first approach, securing key CFTC approvals and winning a court case to list certain political contracts. It is now adding crypto features and forming partnerships with Solana and Base to serve non-U.S. users. Polymarket, originally a decentralized platform on Polygon, built a global audience and is preparing a KYC-compliant U.S. relaunch through clearing entity QCEX, with a future POLY token in the works.
Analysts also highlighted product roadmaps at larger platforms. Coinbase, for example, plans to integrate prediction markets into its “everything exchange,” alongside crypto, tokenized equities, and stablecoins, with a potential update expected at a company event on Dec. 23, 2025.
However, risks remain. Liquidity can be thin in some markets, and order-book trading may be complex for casual users. Regulatory approvals are still limited, which could restrict growth. Many retail bettors still prefer traditional sportsbooks, and broader adoption may depend on easier access through mainstream platforms.
As GNcrypto wrote previously, crypto exchange Gemini filed a designated contract market application with the US CFTC in May 2025 to list event‑based contracts and is awaiting approval. The plan covers sports, elections, and other events, and reviews can take months or longer. Other market operators have discussed similar listings, and some state gaming regulators have questioned aspects of event contracts.
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