Barclays indicator suggests U.S. stock rally may keep going
A Barclays signal that accurately predicted September’s rally now points to further gains in U.S. stocks as the market enters Q4 2025.
U.S. stocks could keep climbing, according to Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator (BETI) - a market tool tracked by Barclays, a major global bank and financial research firm. The indicator analyzes fundamentals like positioning, market trends, and economic data to spot likely turning points. BETI correctly predicted September’s rally, which defied the usual seasonal slowdown.
The indicator currently suggests there’s an 82% chance that the S&P 500 will rise over the next two months, with an average gain of about 4%, based on data since 2015. While not a strict “buy” signal, it indicates a strong likelihood of further gains following the S&P 500’s 35% increase since early April.
Alexander Altmann, Barclays’ global head of equities tactical strategies and creator of BETI, told Bloomberg that the reading is encouraging for bullish investors, while bearish traders might wait longer for a market dip. Altmann noted that no model is perfect, but BETI provides a useful reference to gauge the likelihood of a selloff or rally in the next one to two months.
The indicator currently suggests there’s an 82% chance that the S&P 500 will rise over the next two months, with an average gain of about 4%, based on data since 2015. While not a strict “buy” signal, it indicates a strong likelihood of further gains following the S&P 500’s 35% increase since early April.
Alexander Altmann, Barclays’ global head of equities tactical strategies and creator of BETI, told Bloomberg that the reading is encouraging for bullish investors, while bearish traders might wait longer for a market dip. Altmann noted that no model is perfect, but BETI provides a useful reference to gauge the likelihood of a selloff or rally in the next one to two months.
Barclays’ analysis shows that buying interest and company profits remain strong enough to support more gains in major stock indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.U.S. stocks ended September on a high note. The S&P 500 climbed about 3.5%, and the Nasdaq rose around 5.5%, marking one of their best months this year. Barclays expects this upward trend to continue if economic data and earnings stay solid.
The bank recently raised its year-end target for the S&P 500, citing better-than-expected company profits and steady economic growth. Earlier, Barclays predicted several interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In September 2025, the Fed lowered rates by 0.25%, helping push stocks to new highs and boosting high-risk assets like Bitcoin. More cuts are expected, which usually help stocks rise by making borrowing cheaper and encourage investors to put more money into riskier assets like crypto.
The bank recently raised its year-end target for the S&P 500, citing better-than-expected company profits and steady economic growth. Earlier, Barclays predicted several interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In September 2025, the Fed lowered rates by 0.25%, helping push stocks to new highs and boosting high-risk assets like Bitcoin. More cuts are expected, which usually help stocks rise by making borrowing cheaper and encourage investors to put more money into riskier assets like crypto.
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